Mike_Rosen's Blog

It now appears Florida will not have a do-over of its Democratic primary, leaving voters and Hillary Clinton's campaign crying that they've been disenfranchised. 

What should happen?  I say seat the delegates at the convention according to the proportion of the vote Jan. 29.  That favors Clinton over Barack Obama.  Obama says this will not be fair to him because he didn't actively campaign there or in Michigan.  Both states moved up their primary dates despite warnings from the DNC.  No one had reason to believe that either state's Democratic contest would count toward the delegate total to win the nomination.

But Clinton did campaign in Florida and she was smart for doing so.  Different facets of elections often end up in the courts (see Florida 2000).  Outcomes can change.  And any student of politics should have known that such a move by the DNC to disallow the results would not go unchallenged, especially when the Clinton Political Machine is involved.

Obama, in particular, should have been prepared for this.  His campaign operated from the outset under the assumption that if he were to compete for the nomination, it would be a long and close fight.  Evidence:  his campaign was much more prepared on the ground going into Texas and Ohio and Clinton had to play catch-up. 

So if you know that it's going to be close and every delegate will count, and that something funny was going on in two states with big delegate totals, wouldn't you rather play it safe and run as though they might count?  Clinton did and she may benefit in the end.

I'm not the Entertainment Reporter-type, so don't hold me accountable for all the particulars.  But while SXSW Film is something for our city to be very proud of, I'm partial to Sundance.  Its setting in the Utah mountains is unbelievable (unless you hate the cold).  And it has a Hollywood-like energy to it.

But it's a good thing for the locals that Austin restaurants near the venues don't do what they do in Park City:  go to fixed menus and jack up their prices.  My wife and I decided to splurge on our only visit there a couple years ago.  (Not like we had a choice unless we wanted McDonalds.)  Our dinner for two cost more than her plane ticket!  But the food as outstanding and the service even better.

Anyone experienced both and have a preference? 

Even if the Democratic Party agrees to re-do the primaries in Florida and Michigan, Hillary Clinton may not pick up enough votes and delegates to catch Barack Obama.

Rasmussen polls out this morning show Clinton with a lead in Florida, 55-39%, and tied with Obama in Michigan 41-41%. 

Problem for Clinton is exactly what is was in Texas and Ohio, and will be in Pennsylvania.  She might win the popular vote.  But because Democratic delegates are awarded based on proportion of the vote, she would have to have landslide victories in every state the rest of the way to wipe out Obama's nearly 100-delegate lead. 

For example, after sweeping the popular vote in TX and OH Tuesday, Sen. Clinton netted only 15 delegates more than Sen. Obama.  Florida and Michigan combined offer 367 Democratic delegates.  Then there's the issue of Obama on the ballot in Michigan:  he wasn't originally on it because his campaign knew the primary wouldn't count.

Do you think these primaries should be re-staged so that their delegates can count?  And do you think Clinton could realistically catch Obama?

Hillary Clinton's campaign raised the bar of expectations for Barack Obama today.  In a memo to press, the campaign points out that Obama has outspent Clinton 2-1 ($18 million to 9 million) alone on advertising in the four states with primaries Tuesday (TX, OH, VT, RI). 

"If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there's a problem," Clinton's campaign said. 

Obama is now leading in the polls in Texas.  Clinton is clinging to a lead in Ohio.  Theory is if Clinton loses both states, she's out of the race.  If she splits, her campaign's argument is that she has momentum and very much alive for the Democratic nomination.

Sen. John McCain is on stage in a very high tech Dell conference room in Round Rock flanked by Dell's CEO, Gov. Perry, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and fmr Sen. Phil Gramm.  Michael Dell is seated on the front row in the audience, just recognized by McCain.

McCain arrives with latest polls showing him leading in Texas by a comfortable margin over Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul.

McCain calls Perry his friend and great leader and not a bad looking guy, either.

After this event, Perry will host a fundraiser for McCain at the Four Seasons.  About 115 people expected to attend - sold out - with tickets ranging from $1,000-2,300.

McCain is on stage with two people who are talked about as outside shots at VP.  Perry is the southern conservative the moderate McCain could use in November.  Hutchison is less likely, unless Hillary Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee.  My guess is that if McCain wins, Perry ends up as Homeland Security Secretary.  Don't laugh.  Or maybe FEMA director?

THE REAL HISPANIC POLL NUMBERS

So how much support does Hillary Clinton really have from Texas Hispanic voters?  The latest Fox Rasmussen poll released today shows Clinton's lead among TX Hispanics down to a 7-point margin (doesn't specify numbers).  But a Latino Decisions Texas Poll released by the Clinton campaign last night shows Clinton leading Obama 62%-21% among Hispanic voters. 

OBAMA FATIGUE?

Several hundred seats were left empty this morning for Obama's town hall meeting at the Austin Convention Center.  Yeah, it's a weekday morning.  But with all the 'momentum' he has and the support around here, shouldn't they have been filled?  Perhaps, with an estimated 30k downtown last week and 12k in San Marcos last night, everyone here who wants to see him has already done so.

RECORD TURNOUT WITH AN *

Secretary of State Phil Wilson went out on a huge limb Wednesday with early voting almost over, projecting record turnout for Texas primaries.  But it's only a partial record. 

Wilson projects 3.3 million, compared to the high water mark of 2.7 million in 1988.  However, the real number you should pay attention to is percentage of voters who cast ballots.  Wilson projects 26% this year.  But in 1988 it was 36.7%.  In other words, in what is being called the election of a generation, 1 in 4 Texas voters are voting in the primary, compared to a little more than 1 in 3 20 years ago.

ELECTION NIGHT WEBCAST

Fox 7 News will provide election coverage on the web in addition to our newscasts at 5 and 9PM.  Please join us for a special webcast that will include reports from candidate election night locations and even a democratic caucus after the polls close.  You'll see the latest results as they come in.  And we will also have a host of guests dropping by to add to our coverage.  Here's the schedule:

4:00-5:00PM    Webcast

5:00-6:00PM    Fox 7 News Edge at 5

7:00-9:00PM    Webcast

9:00-10:00PM   Fox 7 News Edge at 9

10:00-11:00PM+ Webcast

Sen. Barack Obama beginning his town hall meeting on the economy with the economic part of his std stump speech.  Closing corporate tax loopholes, ending the Bush tax cuts for wealthy Americans and giving a greater tax cut to middle class.

He'll begin taking questions from the crowd (not press) shortly.

What do you want to hear from him?

Intiial response to question from USAA employee on how to balance border security with individual property rights.

Later said there should be agreements put into place between landowners and the government.  Then apologized for not answering question and said he would "look into it more carefully".

End of town hall meeting.

News conference with reporters later today.

Story at 5.

In the USAA town hall meeting, McCain ducked question on who his runningmate might be.  Said that person would have to (obviously) be qualified to serve as president.

McCain joked that a VP has two jobs.

1.  Serve as a tie-break vote in Senate

2. Inquire daily about the health of the president

Any ideas out there in the blogosphere?

Speaking at USAA in San Antonio McCain promised to veto any bill that comes to his desk as president that contains an earmark.  "You will know their names," he says of the bill authors.

McCain says he blames the GOP's 2006 loss of control of Congress on out of control spending, not the war in Iraq.

Wants to expand ability to treat military who are victims of IED's.  Says how we treat vets today impacts number of men and women are willing to serve later.

Continues to make the war in Iraq the centerpiece of his campaign, calling radical Islamic extremists a threat to everything we stand for and believe in.  Says he are succeeding in Iraq.  That when Clinton and Obama said the surge is not working they are wrong.  McCain says troops should be brought home with honor (not surrender).

John McCain told thousands of employees at USAA that he respects Mike Huckabee's decision to stay in the race, but that he must move and begin to draw distinctions between he and a liberal democratic opponent.

McCain once again singled out Barack Obama without calling him his likely opponent.  Last night's debate Obama said he would reserve the right to send US troops back into Iraq if Al Qaeda re-establishes itself there.  McCain responded saying that Al Qaeda is already there.  "I guess he would surrender, then go back," McCain said of Obama.

Thousands of USAA employees are either seated or lining the second and third floor corridors overlooking the atrium waiting for John McCain to arrive.  McCain just entered to a standing o.  Should be well received here because USAA is an investment company that serves U.S. military and their families.

McCain is expected to criticize Obama for wanting to 'retreat' from Iraq.

McCain is here for a town hall meeting.  This is McCain's 2nd stop in Texas.  Tyler this morning.  He'll end up at Dell in Round Rock Friday.   McCain spoke here in June last year as well.  Company CEO just referenced him as the presumptive nominee.  McCain is only 200 delegates short of the GOP nomination.

Ellen Malcolm, who founded EMILY'S List 22 years ago to help women advance in politics, says that while she expects Hillary Clinton to do well in Texas on election day.  But she expects Barack Obama to have the advantage in  the caucuses, or precinct conventions, that follow that evening and start the process of awarding 67 of the state's 228 Democratic delegates.

Reason:  Malcolm says that Obama performs better in caucuses because women, who make up much of Clinton's base, are at a disadvantage.  The Texas caucus happens in the evenings after the polls close at 7:00.  And Malcolm says that women cannot attend because they have too many responsibilities in the home.  Elderly voters, another part of Clinton's base, are often challenged to go out in the evenings because of transportation and health issues.

Latest polls show Clinton and Obama in a statistical dead heat in Texas.  Malcolm says polls in this race have underestimated the female vote for Clinton, and she expects women will help the NY Senator have a strong showing next week.

Malcolm is in Austin for a couple days this week.  You can catch a live interview with her on Good Day Austin a little after 8:00am Wednesday. 

Lucy and Linda Baines Johnson in the house tonight.

The Showband of the Southwest (UT).

Several members of the Texas legislature supporting both candidates including Sen. Leticia van de Putte (D-SA), a Clinton supporter who is also a co-chair of the Democratic National Convention this summer. 

Sen. Kirk Watson who, after flubbing big time on national TV two nights ago when he couldn't name a single Obama accomplishment, found out that the debate guest seating arrangement had him on the Clinton side.

Bill Powers, UT President.

Here's the lay of the land.  Since this is a CNN sponsored debate, no media except for that network's affiliates has access to the debate auditorium.  The rest of us are spread out in wide corridors with access to a "Spin Room" where surrogates will come after the debate to tell us why their candidate kicked butt and the other was perhaps factually incorrect.

Catering:  El Arroyo.

Barack Obama likes to use the line that most people equate to the definition of insanity:  You do the same thing over and over again expecting different results.  Obama has applied that line to the Clinton(s) administration.  But tonight, it applies directly to Hillary Clinton in her bid for the nomination.

Clinton and Obama are so similar on the issues that Clinton needs to do something to separate herself.  If her campaign's conference call yesterday was any indication, there are no new themes.  Only the continued mantra of experience matters and that she'll be ready on day one.  So tonight, it is in her best interest to vividly illustrate how her experience really does matter. 

Will Clinton go 'negative'?  She might not be able to afford to because her negative rating in polls is sky high.  Last I checked, 48%.  A lof of people, for whatever reason, don't like her.  And taking below-the-belt shots at a very popular candidate could prove fatal.

Your thoughts??