Kevin_Martin's Blog

Greetings Meteorologists and Spotters/Chasers. 

Going to be testing this formula once again you guys.  Took a lot of math to crunch these down, and can say this.  SPC has you under a 5-10% tornado outline.  I may challenge this out of full respect.
I'll go with the formula and say the cap will save you today, AND any tornadic storms will probably be offshore as waterspouts South and East of you guys moving toward Louisiana.  Here we go you guys.  Hope this works!  If it works and keeps doing so, it may provide you guys with a better lead time.  Here's to you guys..

Source: http://ontarioweatherservice.com/outtw.html

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ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE
TORNADO DYNAMICS LABS
FEBRUARY 21, 2008 - 3:00am PST

This is mainly a gulf coast event. All you guys inland in MS/AL are safe for today.

Tornadoes possible across Louisiana and the Gulf Coast.

Morning-Early Afternoon- 2/21/08 ( 6-10 hour warning time )

TORNADO WATCH: Frontal zone into the area will provide tornado dynamics to the Central, Southern, and Eastern Louisiana area today. All chasers and spotters should start along the coastal areas, in Southeastern Louisiana. Storm motion is to the Northeast, however do not cross into Mississippi. Instability in the area on the Northeastern watch is lacking most likely, and this will be confined to the Eastern Louisiana area before dying into Mississippi. Level 2 means tornadoes are possible along the boundary.



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Early Afternoon - Evening 2/21/08 ( 10-12 hour warning time )

TORNADO WATCH: Continued threat of tornadoes across the Louisiana area an area of great interest to chasers and spotters will split into two. We have the section in Extreme Eastern Louisiana and Mississippi border, however if spotting in this area place yourself in these two counties. Concordia, and Catahoula. This is where I think ingredients will come together for rotation in storms that develop or cross this area. Storms will rapidly die off as they head into Western Mississippi.
The other area of interest is the Southeastern Central Louisiana areas would be a boundary extending from West-Southwest to East-Northeast. The area surrounding St. Martin county, LA is about the best spot to be during this watch period. Activity will move to the East-Northeast, dying over the Southwestern Mississippi border.

TORNADO ADVISORY: Was weighing in on watch, however will stick with advisory. The offshore Florida panhandle area may spark some thunderstorms which would house waterspouts. At this time, expecting these to die before reaching the land with lack of dynamics. Just in case, have extended the advisory up to the coastal areas, but am almost sure these will die before land.

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Evening - Sunset and and just after 2/21/08 ( 12-14 hour warning time )

TORNADO WATCH: All spotters in Louisiana will go to the Central and Eastern Louisiana area during this time frame. Likely hood of rotation in the thunderstorms that form is likely and the county to be in would be Avoyelles or Rapides where best initiation looks to be. Am going on limbs by doing this forecast that far away, but I have confidence in the physics of this 3D model I developed to do this forecast.
Activity will move to the Northeast, dying in Southwestern Mississippi.

TORNADO ADVISORY: Will be using this advisory separate for that watch. Reason being is the aerial coverage of storms expected. Expected to be scattered actually, with New Orleans in the path of level 2. Not much, but since the 3D model is actually showing a bump in the numbers have included the watch there. Storms are not expected to make it tornadic into much of Southern Mississippi. This is a coastal event in this area it seems at this time-frame.

TORNADO ADVISORY: Very interesting area to be watching. It is separate for the other activity. A piece of energy will be into the Northeastern Florida area, near the coast. It is possible that addition low level shear dynamics into the area would rotate thunderstorms entering this area. Instability is not all that great, and maybe should have went with a weather statement, however any spotters or chasers in this area would have an interesting short chase as this activity will move Northeast and North into stable air, dying.

WEATHER STATEMENT: A very interesting area as well. This is a leap in a bound, but 3D model is showing a boundary into this area. While tornadoes are not likely in this due to lack of low level shear, severe thunderstorms might be possible in and around this small box.
Houston looks like it is safe from this. I do believe the cap, your favorite savior to weather will keep tornado chances out of your area this time.

TORNADO WATCH : Where ingredients are together enough for a tornado touchdown chance or be warned for, with a more coverage than an advisory.

TORNADO ADVISORY : Where ingredients are there, but not fully placed for a number of tornadoes to form. This is a marginal version of a watch. Isolated chance of a tornado or thunderstorm rotation possible.

WEATHER STATEMENT : Where wording is put by the forecaster to describe the situation in non-tornadic conditions expected.

Kevin Martin