Kevin_Martin's Blog

Greetings Meteorologists, Forecasters, weathercasters, and the general public.  I am going to test my tornado formula with you guys.  I have developed a possible system to predict tornadic areas and it is targeting you in Houston.  Listen to your weatherman.  They will not leave you during this dangerous event. 
We are faced with a possible tornado outbreak.  I will outline it all for you.  I do issue tornado watches and advisories with the formula.  This is a test, but a REAL event test.  The formula has proven to work in many areas.   In now way do I related or am related to the NWS or NOAA.  Please read on if interested.  I'll check back when the event starts..Keep safe..

Source: http://ontarioweatherservice.com/outtw.html

ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE
TORNADO DYNAMICS LABS
FEBRUARY 16, 2008 - 2:30am PST

Is it Houston's turn?

Late morning - Early Afternoon 2/16/08

TORNADO ADVISORY: The day is just getting heated up for a tornado outbreak event possible. We start the firing with cells in and out of the OWS tornado advisory. I do think that lack of tornado dynamics North of the box, storms will be firing, however not tornadic. The Houston metro area looks to be within the lifting boundary and level 1-2 tornado dynamics. Now these are fairly weak to start off with, however rotation is possible, and cannot rule out a tornado chance. The other area to watch will be the Madisonsville and Huntsville areas. around there storms should have a chance of rotation. This is Interstate 45, North of Houston.



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Later Afternoon - Early Evening

TORNADO WATCH: As the dynamics strengthen over the area, and instability increases, we are faced with a possibly dangerous time-frame. If the dynamics are right, the Houston metro area will stay out of the dangerous tornado dynamics, and it should all be North of there due to a possible cap over the Houston area still for non surface based storms. Travels on Interstate 45 will be dangerous out of Houston. Interstate 35 South of Dallas may be a problem spot as well; however, am thinking the worst will stay off that interstate. The watch box is quite large, and needs to be. Storms will be moving North-Northeast, and just South of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. There is quite a bit of chance that Dallas/Fort Worth will be very close to dodging this tornadic event bullet. Dynamics are looking to stay South and East of the metro, probably stopping somewhere around the Henderson and Kaufman county areas.



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Early Evening - Sunset - Just After Sunset 2/16/08

TORNADO WATCH: This watch will extended to the North and South but stay over the same general areas.
This is just a continuation of the afternoon storms South of Dallas-Forth Worth. These should march North-Northeast near Kaufman county and up near the TX/OK border. This clearly shows that the Dallas-Forth Worth area dodged a bullet and should not see a dangerous tornado with this event at all. The watch box signals a line of Severe Thunderstorm activity from near the Oklahoma/Texas border, all the way down to just North of Corpus Christ, TX. Pretty impressive to say the least. Any thunderstorm in front of this line will be very dangerous, with a large and dangerous tornado possible.
To say Houston will dodge it would be lying. Houston metro is between the tornado watch and advisory box. It has a chance at seeing a dangerous tornado during this time frame as storms move Northeast. Traveling in and out of the area must be cautioned. Tune into your favorite live weather newscast and turn those NOAA weather radios on.

TORNADO ADVISORY: This will be just East of the Tornado Watch zone. Any supercell that comes out of the tornado watch box will weaken in this zone but not die. Any storm that develops in this zone has a chance of a tornado, however weak.
This box extends into Extreme Western Louisiana from DeRidder up to Many.



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Well After Sunset - later night but not after midnight. 2/16/08

TORNADO WATCH: The tornado advisory will be taken over by a Tornado Watch. Being if this line wants to go linear is the question. Usually these lines of Severe Thunderstorms go linear, and are unable to produce a tornado. The end result would be large hail and high winds. This looks possible, however we are not taking any chances. Anything forming ahead of this line, and even if the line breaks, will go tornadic instantly. Level 5 dynamics are up in Extreme Eastern Texas from about Lufkin to around Longview,Tx. These dynamics aren't supportive of very strong instability however must caution that this area has high tornado dynamics and does extend to Western Louisiana.
The other area will be the Houston metro. Level 4 tornado dynamics will pass the area and a dangerous tornado is possible.



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TORNADO WATCH : Where ingredients are together enough for a number of tornadoes to touchdown or be warned for.

TORNADO ADVISORY : Where ingredients are there, but not fully placed for a number of tornadoes to form. This is a marginal version of a watch. Will tornadoes may not form in advisories, one may still as the map indicates.