Kevin_Martin's Blog

Hey Kevin,
Thanks for the heads up. The latest GFS runs show a nice looking shortwave trough moving thorugh North Texas and the Central Plains on the 13th-14th, so you may be on to something. Houston has had some very stormy Novembers. We had an outbreak of 22 tornadoes back in November of '03

I'm interested in learning more about your model...

The tornado event is still in the forecast. I am not touching the UJEM model at all and still using numbers I inputed back on October 23, 2007 about the upper jet.
As far as I see, the latest GFS model wants to put a very unstable atmosphere over the SE TX area during the time of the UJEM forecast. This will make showers and thunderstorms, that of which some will be severe, and the chance for tornadoes, giving the increased low level flow for a period of short time will come into the area. If you have not done so, please get this word out. The system was on UJEM on 10/23, and the GFS and other models want to trend the UJEM's pattern so do not waste time. All FOX TV Forecasters pass my word along.


Synopsis- The storm system coming into California on the 11th is forecasted to move South per the GFS into Mexico. UJEM also has this, however UJEM wants to turn the Vort toward TEXAS where it would die near thr Gulf of Mexico.
As this happens, a second vort, not forecasted by the GFS, but UJEM has it, is developed by a Strong NNW jet into the area, nose-diving into New Mexico where this secondary vort starts, and digs down. This one crosses Northern Texas, with the gulf having Tornadoes possible, maybe isolated Central TX chance.


Kevin Martin
Ontario Weather Service

It's been like 3 weeks since I did that pattern. So much could happen, and I know that. WRF wants the vort in the right place.

EC, and GFS want it South into Baja California and beyond.

It's starting to veer off pattern.

The project is good for the first week or two, but it trys to veer on week 3. I need to get those patterns worked on that. WRF is the closest to an actual event at this point. Maybe I should have waited a week to post this pattern setup lol. I mean, the pattern verified in getting the November 11, 2007 Weak Southern California Storm in the storm list for Southern California. That was 19 days. Question is...Can it get anything beyond 21 days, where I find the pattern changes happen.

People think of analogs, and set one winter forecast on them. I believe it's not predictable really, and that an analog year might only last 3 weeks out of the season till the pattern changes again, and you are shifted into another analog.
If you noticed, your weather was probably like NOV 2003 so far, minus the tornadic event near the 18-19th. Up until now, the weather has been pretty close. The reason is, because the analog year might be 2003 for the USA, and it will change. If you want me to come back and give my best on what year we might head into for the late NOV to Early Dec season I can do that. I can't promise much as the system is still being worked on. I like it out to 2 1/2 weeks. 3-4 weeks is going to be tough, if not impossible.

Not anymore, lol the 3 week forecast might not even come to. I mean sure it's cool for a couple weeks but goes out of pattern within 3 weeks.
The storm in the PAC NW, the powerful wind storm was the one responsible for altering the pattern yet again. I mean it's a growing idea though and I plan to keep working on it.

Sorry guys. I had a feeling this cutoff low was going to be pesky and ruin the UJEAS project forecast.
But there is a ray of shine on it. It did predict the string of Santa Ana Winds into Southern California on it. It did this, and it would be a month long range forecast. I do think it has merit, but will report back. If you want to know the patterns without a cutoff I will post the in some kind of details here in about a day.