Kevin_Martin's Blog

Hey guys, Kevin from Tornado Labs. Testing again today, so lets see how it goes. here we go.


ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE
TORNADO DYNAMICS LABS
MARCH 18, 2008 - 4:00am PDT

Tornado dynamics computer is what it is. A thinking machine. I give it information, and it automatically will feed off it. Now, one thing I gave it was AI, or artificial intel. This means that when something goes right tornado wise, it will remember what it was that did it. When something goes wrong, it will also remember it. It will then either keep, or replace certain numbers, and fix itself for the next round.
I ran the computer again, and it is not showing the shades anymore. The shades use to be best lift area, etc etc, but it has found a way to merge those shadings into level outlines only, making it possibly a bit easier to read.
Level 1,2,3,4,5 and I do not know what the new levels mean yet. Today will be the test. I assume that the higher the level the better chance of a tornado. Lets assume that for today.
Today it shows a pretty active afternoon in the TX?AR/LA area with level 4. This activity would move through Arkansas throughout the day, becoming level 5 after sunset. Level 5 just West of the Ar/TN state border, and also in Southern Arkansas. A number of level 5 spots are showing up on this new 1 billion lines of code the computer developed. If it is telling the Truth, a group of supercells in Louisiana later at sunset and after looks possible from Louisiana through Arkansas, and yes, level 5 in spots. The Louisiana area looks like it is ahead of the main line feature which will show up on radar during that time. So this is an area of concern. Will this move into Memphis again overnight? If this works, new maps will be developed by 3pmPDT today for overnight. Stay tuned...

Major metro areas:

Houston / Galveston: Map 1 is showing level 1. Probably a tornado warning, brief tornado. again, levels are not known and are TBD at this time, but assume the higher the worse tornado OR better chance of ANY tornado touchdown. Assume that please. By map two, which is Early Evening to Sunset, level 3-4 appears. What this means is sometime between afternoon and evening, convection or thunderstorms will most likely form in the Gulf and move into the Galveston area. It would rapidly form, and be dangerous if this happens. Going from level 1 to level 4 in one map means rapid atmospheric rotation is expected with increasing storms. This quickly passes after sunset, and if this is telling the truth, Houston/Galveston would be safe then as the areas well North and East of there get ransacked.

Shreveport, LA: This area needs to be on special lookout today. By afternoon, you level 4 is just to the West. Again, levels are TBD but assume it means something the higher it goes. Level 4 will move into a large area including the metro of this city by Early Evening - Sunset. Increasing chances of tornadoes during that time frame sounds good, and if level 4 means something high, this could be significant.
After sunset, most of the metro will still be in tornadic condition chances, however mainly most to the East and North.

--
--

Afternoon to Evening 3/18/08

 Reduced: 51% of original size [ 800 x 619 ] - Click to view full image

--
--

Early Evening - Sunset 3/18/08

 Reduced: 51% of original size [ 800 x 619 ] - Click to view full image

--
--

Sunset - Early Night 3/18/08

 Reduced: 51% of original size [ 800 x 619 ] - Click to view full image

--
--
VIEW THE TEST SECTION LOOPING THAT LETS YOU ANIMATE THE IMAGES!

http://www.owsweather.com/outtwloop.html

--
--

Wish it luck, and most importantly everyone stay safe.

K. MARTIN

The Ontario Weather Service tornado forecast labs project nails a tornado touchdown by county.

With all the people in the world, can tornadoes be predicted before they wake up in the morning? OWS thinks it can.

Corona, California ( OWS ) February 21, 2008 - - The holy grail in weather forecasting is tornado prediction. How far in advance can tornadoes be predicted? How far in advance can tornado watches be issued? Is there a way? Kevin Martin of the Ontario Weather Service has stepped up to the plate.

Kevin Martin, 23, has been developing a system model in his upstairs office. He uses one of his own computers to compute the numbers in. Numbers that are not numerical model made, but made through a 3D 1 meter resolution model of the United States. Is it possible that tornadoes can be seen ahead of the storm?

The model will not be distributed via software. This subscription service is how the Ontario Weather Service research will keep going into the future of forecasting. Kevin Martin would like to keep it free for many people, however the service subscription will give county zoom in maps to news and weather services nationwide. Through one email, lives can be saved. The test of this first technology was made possible over the Winter of 2008, during the recent tornado outbreaks. It was only a matter of time before county wide predictions might be made.

History was made when on February 21, 2008, Kevin Martin attempted to forecast a tornado by county or state section. Kevin Martin wrote the forecast and submitted it to his website at 3:00am that day. The wording is as follows:

"All spotters in Louisiana will go to the Central and Eastern Louisiana area during this time frame. Likely hood of rotation in the thunderstorms that form is likely and the county to be in would be Avoyelles or Rapides where best initiation looks to be. "

During that time-frame, the NWS issued a tornado warning for Avoyelles County in Louisiana. The Storm Prediction Center report showed that a tornado touched down, knocking a tree into a house. Rescue and fire crews were on the scene shortly after.

With gaining confidence in this, Kevin Martin may be able to save lives during these monsters. With more study, it may be possible to nail county tornado forecasts before the storm even forms.

The Ontario Weather Service is running a free trial to select chasers and one storm chase company. Success rates will be given at the end of tornado season on how this formula did. If successful, subscription services will open, and be very cheap so everyone can afford it. The only way for OWS to continue research is subscription into these zoom in maps, with freeways and counties outlined. If OWS is offered a grant to continue free service, it will remove subscription services. So tell your friends and family where to go. Ontario Weather Service Tornado Labs Forecasts...

"PinPoint Tornadocast"

Ontario Weather Service team

Greetings Meteorologists and Spotters/Chasers. 

Going to be testing this formula once again you guys.  Took a lot of math to crunch these down, and can say this.  SPC has you under a 5-10% tornado outline.  I may challenge this out of full respect.
I'll go with the formula and say the cap will save you today, AND any tornadic storms will probably be offshore as waterspouts South and East of you guys moving toward Louisiana.  Here we go you guys.  Hope this works!  If it works and keeps doing so, it may provide you guys with a better lead time.  Here's to you guys..

Source: http://ontarioweatherservice.com/outtw.html

-------------------------------------------------

ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE
TORNADO DYNAMICS LABS
FEBRUARY 21, 2008 - 3:00am PST

This is mainly a gulf coast event. All you guys inland in MS/AL are safe for today.

Tornadoes possible across Louisiana and the Gulf Coast.

Morning-Early Afternoon- 2/21/08 ( 6-10 hour warning time )

TORNADO WATCH: Frontal zone into the area will provide tornado dynamics to the Central, Southern, and Eastern Louisiana area today. All chasers and spotters should start along the coastal areas, in Southeastern Louisiana. Storm motion is to the Northeast, however do not cross into Mississippi. Instability in the area on the Northeastern watch is lacking most likely, and this will be confined to the Eastern Louisiana area before dying into Mississippi. Level 2 means tornadoes are possible along the boundary.



--
--

Early Afternoon - Evening 2/21/08 ( 10-12 hour warning time )

TORNADO WATCH: Continued threat of tornadoes across the Louisiana area an area of great interest to chasers and spotters will split into two. We have the section in Extreme Eastern Louisiana and Mississippi border, however if spotting in this area place yourself in these two counties. Concordia, and Catahoula. This is where I think ingredients will come together for rotation in storms that develop or cross this area. Storms will rapidly die off as they head into Western Mississippi.
The other area of interest is the Southeastern Central Louisiana areas would be a boundary extending from West-Southwest to East-Northeast. The area surrounding St. Martin county, LA is about the best spot to be during this watch period. Activity will move to the East-Northeast, dying over the Southwestern Mississippi border.

TORNADO ADVISORY: Was weighing in on watch, however will stick with advisory. The offshore Florida panhandle area may spark some thunderstorms which would house waterspouts. At this time, expecting these to die before reaching the land with lack of dynamics. Just in case, have extended the advisory up to the coastal areas, but am almost sure these will die before land.

--
--

Evening - Sunset and and just after 2/21/08 ( 12-14 hour warning time )

TORNADO WATCH: All spotters in Louisiana will go to the Central and Eastern Louisiana area during this time frame. Likely hood of rotation in the thunderstorms that form is likely and the county to be in would be Avoyelles or Rapides where best initiation looks to be. Am going on limbs by doing this forecast that far away, but I have confidence in the physics of this 3D model I developed to do this forecast.
Activity will move to the Northeast, dying in Southwestern Mississippi.

TORNADO ADVISORY: Will be using this advisory separate for that watch. Reason being is the aerial coverage of storms expected. Expected to be scattered actually, with New Orleans in the path of level 2. Not much, but since the 3D model is actually showing a bump in the numbers have included the watch there. Storms are not expected to make it tornadic into much of Southern Mississippi. This is a coastal event in this area it seems at this time-frame.

TORNADO ADVISORY: Very interesting area to be watching. It is separate for the other activity. A piece of energy will be into the Northeastern Florida area, near the coast. It is possible that addition low level shear dynamics into the area would rotate thunderstorms entering this area. Instability is not all that great, and maybe should have went with a weather statement, however any spotters or chasers in this area would have an interesting short chase as this activity will move Northeast and North into stable air, dying.

WEATHER STATEMENT: A very interesting area as well. This is a leap in a bound, but 3D model is showing a boundary into this area. While tornadoes are not likely in this due to lack of low level shear, severe thunderstorms might be possible in and around this small box.
Houston looks like it is safe from this. I do believe the cap, your favorite savior to weather will keep tornado chances out of your area this time.

TORNADO WATCH : Where ingredients are together enough for a tornado touchdown chance or be warned for, with a more coverage than an advisory.

TORNADO ADVISORY : Where ingredients are there, but not fully placed for a number of tornadoes to form. This is a marginal version of a watch. Isolated chance of a tornado or thunderstorm rotation possible.

WEATHER STATEMENT : Where wording is put by the forecaster to describe the situation in non-tornadic conditions expected.

Kevin Martin

Greetings Meteorologists, Forecasters, weathercasters, and the general public.  I am going to test my tornado formula with you guys.  I have developed a possible system to predict tornadic areas and it is targeting you in Houston.  Listen to your weatherman.  They will not leave you during this dangerous event. 
We are faced with a possible tornado outbreak.  I will outline it all for you.  I do issue tornado watches and advisories with the formula.  This is a test, but a REAL event test.  The formula has proven to work in many areas.   In now way do I related or am related to the NWS or NOAA.  Please read on if interested.  I'll check back when the event starts..Keep safe..

Source: http://ontarioweatherservice.com/outtw.html

ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE
TORNADO DYNAMICS LABS
FEBRUARY 16, 2008 - 2:30am PST

Is it Houston's turn?

Late morning - Early Afternoon 2/16/08

TORNADO ADVISORY: The day is just getting heated up for a tornado outbreak event possible. We start the firing with cells in and out of the OWS tornado advisory. I do think that lack of tornado dynamics North of the box, storms will be firing, however not tornadic. The Houston metro area looks to be within the lifting boundary and level 1-2 tornado dynamics. Now these are fairly weak to start off with, however rotation is possible, and cannot rule out a tornado chance. The other area to watch will be the Madisonsville and Huntsville areas. around there storms should have a chance of rotation. This is Interstate 45, North of Houston.



--
--

Later Afternoon - Early Evening

TORNADO WATCH: As the dynamics strengthen over the area, and instability increases, we are faced with a possibly dangerous time-frame. If the dynamics are right, the Houston metro area will stay out of the dangerous tornado dynamics, and it should all be North of there due to a possible cap over the Houston area still for non surface based storms. Travels on Interstate 45 will be dangerous out of Houston. Interstate 35 South of Dallas may be a problem spot as well; however, am thinking the worst will stay off that interstate. The watch box is quite large, and needs to be. Storms will be moving North-Northeast, and just South of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. There is quite a bit of chance that Dallas/Fort Worth will be very close to dodging this tornadic event bullet. Dynamics are looking to stay South and East of the metro, probably stopping somewhere around the Henderson and Kaufman county areas.



--
--

Early Evening - Sunset - Just After Sunset 2/16/08

TORNADO WATCH: This watch will extended to the North and South but stay over the same general areas.
This is just a continuation of the afternoon storms South of Dallas-Forth Worth. These should march North-Northeast near Kaufman county and up near the TX/OK border. This clearly shows that the Dallas-Forth Worth area dodged a bullet and should not see a dangerous tornado with this event at all. The watch box signals a line of Severe Thunderstorm activity from near the Oklahoma/Texas border, all the way down to just North of Corpus Christ, TX. Pretty impressive to say the least. Any thunderstorm in front of this line will be very dangerous, with a large and dangerous tornado possible.
To say Houston will dodge it would be lying. Houston metro is between the tornado watch and advisory box. It has a chance at seeing a dangerous tornado during this time frame as storms move Northeast. Traveling in and out of the area must be cautioned. Tune into your favorite live weather newscast and turn those NOAA weather radios on.

TORNADO ADVISORY: This will be just East of the Tornado Watch zone. Any supercell that comes out of the tornado watch box will weaken in this zone but not die. Any storm that develops in this zone has a chance of a tornado, however weak.
This box extends into Extreme Western Louisiana from DeRidder up to Many.



--
--

Well After Sunset - later night but not after midnight. 2/16/08

TORNADO WATCH: The tornado advisory will be taken over by a Tornado Watch. Being if this line wants to go linear is the question. Usually these lines of Severe Thunderstorms go linear, and are unable to produce a tornado. The end result would be large hail and high winds. This looks possible, however we are not taking any chances. Anything forming ahead of this line, and even if the line breaks, will go tornadic instantly. Level 5 dynamics are up in Extreme Eastern Texas from about Lufkin to around Longview,Tx. These dynamics aren't supportive of very strong instability however must caution that this area has high tornado dynamics and does extend to Western Louisiana.
The other area will be the Houston metro. Level 4 tornado dynamics will pass the area and a dangerous tornado is possible.



--
--

TORNADO WATCH : Where ingredients are together enough for a number of tornadoes to touchdown or be warned for.

TORNADO ADVISORY : Where ingredients are there, but not fully placed for a number of tornadoes to form. This is a marginal version of a watch. Will tornadoes may not form in advisories, one may still as the map indicates.

The U-JEM mission is to provide accurate long range forecasts for patterns. The U-JEM will not be able to provide smaller scale events, however it can see cutoff systems, troughs, and ridges, and the general pattern outlook of what the weather could hint weeks down the line.

I have been seeing a TORNADO EVENT FOR YOUR CITY since October 23, 2007, which is like a 3 week forecast.  Please keep this until the event.  If it happens, E-Mail me back, and I will be happy to do an interview via phone on how I did this.

The Long Range Model from OWS is here.

http://www.ontarioweatherservice.com/ujem.html<
/p>

Kevin Martin
Ontario Weather Service
Meteorologist

SATURDAY

Remnants from Former Hurricane Dean will be coming into the area making it's presence known in the way of mid level clouds and showers possible from them. Temperatures should be down as well, and the humidity will be up. Some of the warmer spots will feel very uncomfortable.
Thunderstorms are possible in the Mountains and Deserts if a sufficient clearing of the atmosphere is present. This activity will get a chance to move to the West as we will be on the Northern side of the vorticy maximum which is predominately counter-clockwise flow.
Valley chances, and a slight chance of coastal storms will be added this day as a result.
Being the vorticy maximum is in the area, and it is a stronger one at that, we may be dealing with nocturnal or nighttime activity as lift will be present.
Night time temperatures will struggle to get very cold under this very warm and moist atmosphere so count on mild nights, with the lower deserts in the 80's in spots.


SUNDAY

The center of the left over of Dean will be over the Ventura area this day, putting areas East of it under PVA, or Positive Vorticy Advection. This, plus ample moisture in the area, and instability will aid in shower and thunderstorm development.
Being this track is this far West, this will put the Bakersfield and Tehachapi Mountains finally in precipitation chances as you have not seen at all even once this entire season.
Flow will be to the North, so confidence is low that any West drifters are possible, however with the atmosphere being as moist, with added lift source in the area, I am still keeping shower or thunderstorm chances everywhere.

K. MARTIN

The Ontario Weather Service Forecast Office has been watching Hurricane Dean as it hit Mexico, and the chance came that the Remnants of it could hit the Southland.  We are sure now that it will hit.  We have been chancing this for quite some time, but today we are announcing that we will see showers and thunderstorms from it across many parts of the Southland.
Because of the East flow around the vort center that will move over the area, we should see some of these push West of the local mountains.
High moisture content will allow for the chance of flash flooding in the Desert and Mountain areas, including the Hemet/Perris Valleys had any storms get going really good.

Kevin Martin
Ontario Weather Service
Meteorologist In Charge

The Ontario Weather Service is going to call a heatwave event. Records may be smashed in spots. Big Bear Lake's 94-95 degree record may be smashed by a 100 degree reading on July 4, 2007! High pressure building in will be centered over Northwest Arizona. This will put us in a huge ridge folks. These heights will allow 100 degree readings in the higher mountain elevations!
Palm Springs may go over 120 degrees, and well you had it over at Havasu and Blythe, with over 125 possible. Inland Empire areas could hit 110. The best spots to go will be the beach. Onshore flow will allow for cooling there, and it should stay in the 80's. Still hot, however areas a few miles inland from the beach could hit over 100 if the wind flow is just right.
Will reflect on this as the heatwave approaches.
Get out to the beach during this time! This is your relief window.
Please prepare yourselves if you are in the areas where the heat will occur.
As for Tehachapi Town. You guys will very well be into the 90's and close to 100 in spots as well. Very dangerous situation, and do not be caught off guard.
If you are traveling to the Central Valley on I-5 do not think you will escape the heat. The Central Valley will bake over 110+ Degrees as well.
This is your first forecast for these temperatures. More will follow in a couple days for the final thoughts. Please return to this section for your update.

Kevin Martin
Ontario Weather Service
Meteorologist In Charge

Saturday, June 9 ,2007 was a trip to Lucerne Valley for the Bi-Annual Rocstock.  Launching high power rockets up up and away.  That wasn't the only thing going up.  Major Dust Devils came in and ruined some of the camper's stuff.  It took tents out, and ruined some RV Awnings.
They are called Dust Devils, and are very common in the Deserts here.  I was able to capture one of them on camera.  One hit me, and I turned around and snapped the photo.  It was large.  It moved away and gave me the perfect photo to take.

\

Monsoon is not here yet, and even if this happens, it is not monsoonal until the monsoon officially starts. Summer begins soon, and just after it will have the summer four corners High hinting at developing for some South and East flow Sunday onwards. Mid level moisture will be the main thing in this, and not so much lower. This means that mainly high based thunderstorms are going to be forecasted by me until further notice. These should move in a Northerly direction. Watching areas near the mountains in the High Desert, and Coachella Valley sections. Chance of the high level to make it to Tehachapi Mountains, however will reflect on this soon.
Dry lightning is possible as well, and this will elevate the fire danger further.
More on this will be given in this section daily as we near this event start. If it cancels, you will know in here first.
http://www.ontarioweatherservice.com/mfc.html

Kevin Martin
Ontario Weather Service
Meteorologist In Charge

SATURDAY 

Clear, with the exception of an upper level Southerly flow, in which will bring some moisture at that level. This means a chance of contrails, and cirrus clouds across the skies.
Hot temperatures for all the Deserts with 100's across the board, as is typical for this time of year with breezy Southwesterly winds in the Barstow areas in the Afternoon a Evening.
Inland Empire areas will be nearing 100 in spots as well, but mostly stay in the 90's.
80's for the LA and OC areas, while San Diego enjoys mild temperatures in the 70's.
Heading to the Mountains? Well your mountain forecast looks good, with Big Bear Lake in the 70's, and Tehachapi town sitting in the 70's to 80's as well.
Off to the coastal we go with 70's across the area. Marine layer overnight in spots, however going to keep it out of some of the Inland Empire zones.

-------------------------------------------------------
-------

SUNDAY

Much clearer day. Marine layer burning off by late morning, and the exact same temperatures as Saturday, but a few degrees cooler.

Kevin Martin
Ontario Weather Service
Meteorologist In Charge

A high pressure system will be centered to the West of the California area.  Way out in the ocean it will sit.  We will be on the Eastern side of this high.  The Eastern side is known as the subsidence side, or sinking air.  This will be a very , very bad pollution tie for the Southern California as a strong inversion will be present.  You will not see the mountains from areas, and if you are in the mountains, you will not see the Valleys below.  It will be terrible. 
As for temperatures.  You heard it right, this subsidence, or sinking air side of the high will give high temperatures across much of the Southland.  OWS progs indicate an increase of 20-30 degrees in spots.  This is going to be very bad.  Areas in Palm Springs will be the hottest on Thursday with an OUCH temperature profile of near 110 degrees or higher in spots.  You better believe you need to drink plenty of water out there, and cover your skin from the sun.  Bakersfield over 100 degrees as well.  OWS Heat Warnings will go out with this heatwave.  These warnings are so you can warn your family/friends/ anyone in the mentioned areas.  Anyone outside, DRINK WATER.  Do not let yourself get a heatstroke or worse.  I can't stress it anymore than that.
Los Angeles areas should break in near 80 or so.  This is because of the marine layer.  The marine layer should moderate the temperatures to a cooler level than the Inland Empire areas, which should get at or just over 90.
The Central California area will be hot as well, with areas there along the I-5 between Baksersfield and San Francisco getting over 100 degrees.  A tough time for some it will be, but get through it safe!

Kevin Martin
Ontario Weather Service
Meteorologist In Charge

Weekend June 9-10 Forecast developed every Thursday!

SATURDAY


Mostly clear skies, with some cumulus building over the local mountains in the afternoon. Highs in the 90's for the High Desert, with 70's in Los Angeles, and 80's in some Inland Locations. Beaches should be near 70 as well. Mountains above 5,000 Feet in the 65-75 degree range. Low deserts near 100.
No wind problems.
Mostly clear overnight with lows in the 50's for the LA to Inland areas, 30's in the local mountain towns of Tehachapi, and Big Bear Lake, 60's for the lower deserts, and 50's for the High Deserts, with Barstow being in the 60's.
No Wind Problems.
Marine layer returning for coastal, and valley areas overnight.


-------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------
SUNDAY


Marine layer burning off to mostly clear skies, with a few contrails around, mainly South of Los Angeles.
Warmer day with temperatures a tad higher than Saturday everywhere. Same overnight temperatures.
No wind problems.
Deeper marine layer overnight for the Coastal and Valley sections.


K. MARTIN

Amazing setup coming in for Wednesday. First off, a storm system coming out of the Pacific Northwest should start to show effects from Texas Panhandle Northward tomorrow into Montana. This only spells part of the soup for the next day. The calm before the storm event. A deep 977mb Surface low will be present over Southern South Dakota. Ahead of it, warm, moist air from the South will come in. This, with the trailing cold front will result in explosive action in the Eastern parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Western to Central Iowa, and Southwestern Minnesota. Shear values are up the roof with this one as the Low Level Winds from the South increase by late afternoon/evening, and even overnight to near 60 mph. This, with an incredible jet stream dynamic will make it possible for long tracking tornadoes, which could cause major damage, and even bring out another chance of a maxi EF5.

www.ontarioweatherservice.com/outtw.html>

If you have family in these parts give them an EARLY WARNING.

The Ontario Weather Service has taken on the Entire USA/Canada area with the first ever Tornado Forecast Formula.  The OWS Formula for Tornadoes calculates the rotation be it weak,moderate,high of the mesocyclone or supercell updraft.
This research will promise Canada a better tornado forecast hours ahead.  People need to know as early as possible, and not wait a few hours.  OWS Forecasts give as much as 6-10 hour warnings of tornado dynamics in the area.  Visit the site at.  Also come have a chat with us today!  Later today we will have a number of people in the chat provided.

www.ontarioweatherservice.com/outtw.html

Kevin Martin
Ontario Weather Service
Meteorologist In Charge