John_Schwada's Blog

More ulcers for the Democratic Party’s superdelegates. A new calculation shows that Clinton, after Pennsylvania’s primary results, has received more votes (as opposed to delegates) than Barack Obama in both the caucuses and primaries. So much for Obama’s popular vote bragging rights – at least for the time being (he still leads Clinton by about 125 delegates). 

According to veteran political analyst Michael Barone, reporting Saturday in his Rasmussen Reports column, Clinton now has:

“won the votes, in primaries and caucuses, of 15,112,000 Americans, compared to 14,993,000 for Obama (Schwada’s note: roughly a lead of 120,000 votes, or 4/10ths of one percent of all votes cast). If you add in the votes, as estimated by the folks at realclearpolitics.com, in the Iowa, Nevada, Washington and Maine caucuses, where state Democratic parties did not count the number of caucus-attenders, Clinton still has a lead of 12,000 votes (Schwada’s note: or a lead of 4/100ths of one percent)."

News like this only prolongs the agony for undecided Democratic superdelegates, desperately looking for some sign, fact, index, trend (have they tried chicken entrails and tarot cards?) to guide them out of the party’s political maze. Imagine the soul-searching too among any Democrats, from the Obama camp, who might have claimed George Bush’s 2000 election victory was a joke – in part because he lost the popular vote. What are they to say now? That the popular vote doesn’t matter?

The super-delegates must also be keeping an eye on the polls….in fact, the pollsters could become the 800-lb gorillas in the Democratic Party’s nomination-kitchen.

For example, what if the polls started to consistently show that one candidate would do a much better job in a matchup against McCain? That’s an electability question that the super-delegates have got to consider.

At this time, by this measure, Obama and McCain are running neck-and-neck. When realpolitics.com looked at six separate polls, the average showed showed Obama doing BETTER against McCain than Clinton - at this point in time. Obama, on average, is currently enjoying a 1.6 percentage point advantage over McCain. In a Clinton vs. McCain matchup, the spread is 1.2 percentage points, in favor of Clinton. But the differences here are unremarkable, statistically insignificant. These kinds of numbers don't provide much help tor the super-delegates.

Another polling measure for the super-delegates to consider: how Democrats nationwide view the two candidatesl, Over time, these polls have seen Obama overcome and then surpass Clinton. Currently, by this measure (again I’m relying on realpolitics.com’s average of six polls), the spread between Obama and Clinton is 6.2% - advantage Obama.. But the latest numbers also hint at a closing of the gap; the spread was nearly 10% a few weeks ago.

There are plenty of other factors to consider – but the polls, delegate totals and popular vote are key to the nomination math, and as of today, the lead changed hands in the popular vote totals. Advantage Clinton.