John_Schwada's Blog

The latest Reuters-Zogby poll shows March has been a tough month for Barack Obama. Only three weeks ago, the Illinois senator seemed almost invincible as voters, superdelegates and the media rushed to jump on his bandwagon.

But now, according to Reuters-Zogby, his double-digit lead among Democrats over Hillary Clinton has been whittled away, the two now locked in a virtual statistical tie. (In February, after ten straight wins, Obama soared to a 14 point lead; in a poll taken earlier this week, his lead was down to 3 points – 47% to 44%).

Other pollsters that have been in the field in recent days (Gallup, with its tracking poll, and USA Today) also show the gap narrowing between the two Democrats (e.g., in the USA Today poll, Obama’s 12-point lead sank to 7 points in mid-March).

No question her convincing Texas and Ohio primary victories put some wind in Clinton’s sails, and now Obama’s struggle to explain how he squares his own perspective, philosophy etc. with that of his longtime pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, has put Obama on the hot seat.

The Wright-agony is probably far from over. Witness, for example, Obama’s answer to a question from Fox News Channel reporter Major Garrett about how he would have reacted if he had personally heard – while sitting in church – any of Wright’s controversial remarks (“God damn America,” etc.). Here’s an excerpt of that interview:

Garrett: So, quick yes or no. If had you heard them (Wright’s remarks) in person (Schwada’s emphasis) you would have quit?

Obama: If I had heard them repeated, I would have quit. I mean, obviously, understand that -- understand that, you know, this is somebody who is like an uncle. If you have -- to me. He's somebody who helped me find Christ. And somebody who always talked to me in very powerful ways about relationship to God and our obligations to the poor.

If somebody makes a mistake, then obviously, you recognize -- I make mistakes. We all make mistakes. If I thought that that was the repeated tenor of the church, then I wouldn't feel comfortable there.

But, frankly, that has not been my experience at Trinity United Church of Christ.

Yet, Tuesday, in his speech, Obama said: "Did I know him (Wright) to be an occasionally fierce critic of American domestic and foreign policy? Of course. Did I ever hear him make remarks that could be considered controversial while I sat in church? Yes.”

If he heard them, then why didn't he quit as he told Fox News he would have done?

There appears to be a contradiction here. How significant is it if Obama didn’t exactly come clean with a reporter but told the whole truth in his speech – to voters everywhere? Hard to say. But it suggests – suggests – the potential credibility minefields out there regarding the Obama-Wright relationship.

What sermons, controversial remarks did Obama hear first-hand? Are there videos of Obama listening to Wright’s sermons – or other evidence of his attendance when the hot-potato ones were given? Did Obama challenge Wright about his views? Did he make statements disputing those views to other congregants? In other words, is Obama’s disagreement with Wright only a recent conversion, made for political purposes? Or was he okay with Wright’s views as long as they didn’t complicate his political ambitions?

Meantime, Clinton is trying mightily to keep Obama on the defensive.

With her opponent trying to regain his political sea-legs after the rocky-Reverend-Wright-ride, Clinton now is throwing a new punch: she bluntly challenged Obama Wednesday (March 19) to agree to primaries in Michigan and Florida, saying it would be “wrong and frankly un-American” not to let Democrats in those states have a voice in picking their party’s nominee. Are we surprised? Not at all.

Of course, keeping the spotlight on Obama’s troubles also keeps it off her own potential embarrassments, which many suspect may emerge from the release of the White House papers from the Clinton years and her income taxes…

In short, there will be a lot for voters in Pennsylvania to digest before their primary in late April, still weeks away. Hang on... the ride will be bumpy, sort of like Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride at Disneyland. Full of surprises, at times even hilarious.