Bob_Tarlau's Blog

Last Friday, I wrote that North Carolina’s Tue May 6 election would likely be the decider of the Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama battle.  Part of my thinking was that Clinton has been so far ahead in the Pennsylvania polls that victory there would be seen as status quo, a confirmation that the race continues.   Yet according to a couple of indicators this week, perhaps we won’t get that far.

For one thing, the Clinton campaign is cash starved… with big bills in her “to be paid” basket.  Secondly, her once rock solid Pennsylvania lead is shrinking – fast.  The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in PA has Clinton leading Obama by just five percentage points, 47% to 42%. For Clinton, that five-point edge is down from a 10-point lead just a week ago.  She enjoyed a 13-point margin in mid-March and a 15-point advantage in early March.

Rasmussen's statement on these findings says:  “Support for Clinton slipped from 52% early in March, to 51% in mid-month, 49% a week ago, and 47% today. During that same time frame, support for Obama has increased from 37% to 42%.”

Over the last two weeks, the news for Obama has gotten much brighter.  First, The nightmare presented by his former pastor is on the back burner (perhaps until the GOP revives in the fall), with polls showing his campaign hasn’t really been hurt by Rev. Wright’s disgusting remarks… or Obama’s failure to confront him while a member of Wright’s church.

Second, Obama has also picked up some key congressional endorsements… including one from Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey… and a second female senator, freshman Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota.   She had recently voiced concerns about the rancorous tone of the Democratic primary, and said she was now forced to choose because she found remaining uncommitted difficult.   In her words:  "Between Barack and a hard place, I chose Barack."   Klobuchar joins Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill in backing Obama.

And there was an important Obama endorsement from one of the Democratic Party’s top foreign policy figures, Lee Hamilton, a former U.S. House member from Indiana, where an important primary vote occurs May 6.   Hamilton, who co-chaired the commission that investigated the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and headed the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, said he was impressed by Obama's approach to national security and foreign policy.

Third, the Obama campaign is flush with cash… and is already spending a good chunk of that to run TV ads in the remaining states.   Figures out yesterday (Thursday), show that that the Illinois Senator raised more than $40 million in March.  Clinton raised half that.

Now let’s say that Obama really is able to pull off an upset in the Keystone State.  I believe a Clinton loss in Pennsylvania would effectively end the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination.  Obama would certainly pick up the momentum to win most if not all of the remaining states – including that all-important North Carolina contest.

If it turns out to be Barack Obama vs. John McCain in the November election… Obama will face a tough sell job to bring over Hillary’s loyal base.  Rasmussen finds just 56% of Clinton’s current supporters say they are likely to vote for Obama against John McCain. Forty percent of Clinton voters in Pennsylvania say they are not likely to vote for Obama.

Just 21% of Pennsylvania’s Primary Voters say that Clinton should drop out of the race while 18% would like Obama to leave. Those figures are similar to results from a recent national survey. Fifty-one percent (51%) in Pennsylvania say it’s very likely the contest will not be resolved until the convention in Denver. That figure includes 61% of Clinton voters and 38% of those who support Obama. Overall, another 33% say a convention decision is Somewhat Likely.

Clinton – out on the Pennsylvania – campaign trail this week says she has something in common with legendary film boxer Rocky Balboa -- she's not a quitter.  Recalling a famous scene on the steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art from the 1976 Oscar-winning film "Rocky," Clinton said that ending her presidential campaign now would be as if "Rocky Balboa had gotten halfway up those art museum steps and said, 'Well, I guess that's about far enough.  Let me tell you something, when it comes to finishing a fight, Rocky and I have a lot in common. I never quit. I never give up.”

The day she does quit – if it comes to that – will be a tough one for both her and the former president.  I wonder what she does then, endorse Obama?  At this point that’s hard to imagine but there have been stranger political bedfellows.

So if those 33% who say a brokered convention in late August is Somewhat Likely are actually right, how much damage does a floor fight do to the Democrats in the fall campaign?   I think not much.   For one thing, if the battle actually continued that far (and I don’t believe it will) the convention news coverage would be unbelievably heavy… surging right over the Republican Convention (or coronation) which comes the very next week.  McCain could find himself facing a case of damaged momentum.

OK, so I’ve posed some questions—and given you my take.  Now it’s time for yours.

Have a good week ahead… and I’ll be back here with THIS POLITICAL WEEK next Friday.

Cheers, Bob