Bob_Tarlau's Blog

Let’s start THIS POLITICAL WEEK by looking ahead to the Democratic Party contests in future weeks… and months.  

+ On Tue Apr 22, we have the much-anticipated Pennsylvania Primary, with its 188 delegates.  All the polls have Hillary Clinton far ahead there.

+ On Sat May 3, the Dems on Guam vote to instruct nine delegates.  

+ On Tue May 6, 84 delegates are at stake in Indiana, 134 in North Carolina.

+ On Tue May 13, it’s West Virginia’s turn; 39 delegates there.

+ On Tue May 20, we turn to Kentucky (60 delegates) and Oregon (65).

+ On Sun Jun 1, it’s Puerto Rico with 63 delegates.

+ And then on Tue Jun 3 this long long primary/caucus season wraps up with votes in Montana (24 delegates) and South Dakota (23).

Of those, most of the media and candidate attention is concentrated on Pennsylvania.  But what’s much more important is the crucial importance of North Carolina.  The vote there has the real potential of determining the Democratic nominee.  Clinton can only win if there’s a radical realignment of the super-delegates.  Enough would have to move into her camp despite the popular appeal of Barack Obama and the political peril of denying the nomination to the first African-American with a real chance to become President.   There is a way that can happen, however.  Read on.

As I noted earlier, Clinton is so far ahead in Pennsylvania that whatever the margin of her victory there it will be seen as status quo… basically a confirmation that the race continues.

On the other hand, North Carolina is an ideal state for Obama: large college towns, large black population, and higher than average income for a Southern state. His lead there has been so commanding that most watchers figure it’s his… much as PA has been ceded to Clinton.

Let’s suppose Clinton takes both Pennsylvania and Indiana.   That would make an Obama victory in North Carolina especially important.   Vital, in fact.  If he wins NC, he can show that he has staying power in spite of the Rev. Wright mess and it would keep the glue in his super-delegate majority.   A loss in NC would be very costly for Obama in a state tailor made for him.   It would sow real doubts in the minds of the super-delegates currently leaning his way.   I think under that circumstance (however unlikely) she wins.

That’s why I believe the vote in the Tar Heel State is ultra important.  Back with you next Friday.

Cheers, Bob