Bob_Tarlau's Blog

It’s the Wednesday wash-up of Super Tuesday as I write this. Remember way back when – say a couple of months ago – when the political “wise” men and women peered through binoculars at Super Tuesday and reckoned it would be a crowning day, with the nominating mantle all but settling on the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees. It would be, they forecast, a 24-state extravaganza that would essentially bring the curtain down on the long primary campaign.

How things change in politics and how they changed again last night. The Wednesday wash-up shows us there’ll be a continuing fight within each party… through the next set of primaries… for maybe months to come… right up to the possibility (which I doubt) of contentious conventions.

Sure we have Sen. John McCain who with the absolute right to claim front-runner status. But that’s not scaring Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee out of the race. And on the Democratic side, what a fascinating duel this is between a white woman and a black man. Exit polls show yesterday’s Democratic voters were divided much more along race and ethnic lines and than they were by ideology.

I do want to hear from you – where you think this race is going? Be bold and give me a pick of not only the eventual nominee but also the name of the man or woman who take the oath of office on January 20, 2009. Personally, I’m guessing (only guessing here) that it will wind up being McCain versus Clinton with Clinton the favorite to make it all the way.

First, however, some thoughts from others in the news biz. Reading through the various newspapers and websites this morning, these were some of the thoughts that stood out.

From Doyle McManus and Peter Wallsten in the Los Angeles Times:

“The overall outcome: These primary races are not over in either party. The battle between Clinton and Obama will continue, probably through the March 4 primaries in Ohio and Texas and possibly beyond. McCain appears almost certain to win his party's nomination, but only after battling Romney and Huckabee for delegates in more states. For Democrats, Tuesday's results showed both candidates strengthening their natural bases of support, with Clinton exerting dominance among Latinos and Obama beginning to show progress among white voters. In fact, Obama proved, just as he did in last month's Iowa caucuses, that many whites will vote for a black candidate.

After winning just a quarter of the white vote in South Carolina's heavily black primary last month, Obama needed to show that his support spanned the races. On Tuesday, he made that point decisively, beating Clinton in states with tiny minority populations: Connecticut, Minnesota, Utah, North Dakota, Alaska and Idaho. He won nearly half of white voters in California.

Those numbers could help Obama's campaign convince potential donors and voters in future contests in the coming weeks that he can go the distance, particularly with important primaries coming up in Washington state, Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

For Clinton, Tuesday brought a clear consolidation of her strength among Latinos, a bloc she dominated in California. But exit polls showed Obama narrowing the gap in Arizona, where he won about 4 in 10 Latinos, and his victory in the Colorado caucuses suggests he mounted a successful courtship of Latinos in key areas of that state as well.”

From the always enjoyable site Politico.com comes an article by Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen called “Five Reasons Hillary Should Be Worried.”

They reckon Clinton survived a Super Tuesday scare but that her team is girding for trench warfare and is very aware of the following:

“1. She lost the delegate derby. Pure and simple, this is a war to win delegates, one that might not be decided until this summer’s Democratic convention.

And when the smoke cleared this morning, it appeared that Barack Obama had ended up with slightly more delegates in the 22 states. Obama’s campaign says the senator finished ahead by 14 delegates.

With results still coming in, Clinton’s campaign says the candidates finished within five or six delegates of each other. Either way, Super Tuesday was essentially a draw.

Clinton may still hold the edge overall, but Obama is closing in rapidly.

2. She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote. Each won just over 7.3 million votes, a level of parity that was unthinkable as recently as a few weeks ago.

At the time, national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead — in some cases, by 10 points or more. That dominance is now gone. One reason is that polls and primary results reveal that the more voters get to know Obama, the more they seem to like him. This is especially troubling for Clinton since the schedule slows dramatically now and a full month will pass before the next big-state showdown.

All of this allows candidates ample time to introduce themselves to voters in each state — which plays to Obama’s core strengths.

3. She lost more states. Obama carried 14 states, six more than Clinton, and showed appeal in every geographical region.

His win in bellwether Missouri was impressive by nearly every measure, marked by victories among men and women, secular and churchgoing voters, and urban and suburban voters.

4. She lost the January cash war. Money chases momentum, so Obama crushing’s 2-to-1 fundraising victory last month is revealing.

He raised more than $31 million; Clinton raised less than $14 million. The implication is hard to ignore: Democratic activists and donors are flocking to Obama at a pace that could have a profound effect on the race going forward.

5. The calendar is her enemy. Now that more than half the states have weighed in, there is a fairly predictable formula for determining who is most likely to win the upcoming contests.

In caucus states, Obama’s organizational strength shines: He has won seven of eight. Up next are three more caucus states, Washington, Nebraska and Maine. Obama also runs tremendously well in states with large African-American populations, another promising sign since next Tuesday’s three primaries are in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia — all of which have significant percentages of black voters.

Then comes another caucus state, Hawaii, where Obama is viewed as a native son.

The bottom line is that it figures to be another month before Clinton hits a stretch of states — places like Ohio and Pennsylvania — where she will be strongly favored to win.”

Some interesting observations now from an analysis piece to Adam Nagourney in The New York Times this morning:

It is hard to see how Mr. McCain can be a strong general-election candidate — particularly going up against a Democratic Party so energized — without the support of the party’s conservative wing. Assuming Mr. Huckabee is unable to wound Mr. McCain as he wounded Mr. Romney, the results on Tuesday could give Mr. McCain time now to begin trying to repair breaches. The riveting competition between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama could provide Mr. McCain some cover as he deals with this peacemaking.

The picture is decidedly less auspicious for the Democrats. These were the first head-to-head contests between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama since John Edwards of North Carolina dropped out, and the results suggest that Democrats are fracturing along gender and racial lines as they choose between a black man and a white woman.

Surveys of voters leaving the polls suggested a reprise of the identity politics that has so long characterized — and at times bedeviled — Democratic politics. Black voters overwhelmingly supported Mr. Obama, suggesting an end to a period in which Mrs. Clinton could remain competitive with Mr. Obama for the support of that segment of the Democratic electorate.

Women went, by large margins, to Mrs. Clinton. But in one development that augurs well for Mr. Obama, white men — who had largely voted for Mr. Edwards before — appeared to be heading in his direction. And young voters also went overwhelmingly for Mr. Obama, suggesting a generational divide.

OK your turn now. You’ve read my opinion and those of some others. Do the Super Tuesday results really mean a generational divide on the Democratic side? For the Republicans, is Rush Limbaugh and others of the radio right accurate in worrying that their party’s conservative base is coming undone and may no longer have the relevancy it did for so long?

Give me your picks and your thoughts. And thanks again for surfing over here.

You can read my previous blogs for myfoxla.com at:

http://community.myfoxla.com/blogs/Bob_Tarlau>

Cheers, Bob